Introduction

This annual report of worldwide threats to the national security of the United States responds to Section 617 of the FY21 Intelligence Authorization Act (Pub. L. No. 116-260). This report reflects the collective insights of the Intelligence Community (IC), which is committed every day to providing the nuanced, independent, and unvarnished intelligence that policymakers, warfighters, and domestic law enforcement personnel need to protect American lives and America’s interests anywhere in the world.

This assessment focuses on the most direct, serious threats to the United States during the next year.

The attached is a 7-page “Assessment of Armenia’s Court Crisis,” with an analysis of the Armenian parliament’s recent adoption of legislation to reform and restructure the Constitutional Court, as well as notable concerns and analytical observations regarding the broader implications for legal and judicial reform in Armenia.

In a recent assessment of developments in Armenia, the RSC published an analysis on 15 June entitled, “No Rest or Respite for Armenian Politics,” focusing on the confrontation between the Armenian government and the notorious petty “oligarch,” Gagik Tsarukyan, and his opposition “Prosperous Armenia” Party.

Authoring a Policy Brief for the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), RSC Director Richard Giragosian offered a broad overview of the geopolitical context in the wake of Armenia’s “Velvet Revolution” of 2018.  In this assessment, entitled “Paradox of power: Russia, Armenia, and Europe after the Velvet Revolution,” Giragosian focused on the Russian response to the change of “elites” in Armenia, the critical imperative for European support, and the efforts by Prime Minister Pashinyan and his government to garner greater “room to maneuver” and more options to offset the danger of Armenia’s over-dependence on Russia, while accelerating and deepening domestic reform.

In a widely hailed analytical piece for the Carnegie Moscow Center, RSC Analyst Mikayel Zolyan explores the significance of the criminal investigation targeting former Armenian President Robert Kocharian and others for their role in the country’s deadly March 2008 post-election crisis.  For select excerpts, see below: