This annual report of worldwide threats to the national security of the United States responds to Section 617 of the FY21 Intelligence Authorization Act (Pub. L. No. 116-260). This report reflects the collective insights of the Intelligence Community (IC), which is committed every day to providing the nuanced, independent, and unvarnished intelligence that policymakers, warfighters, and domestic law enforcement personnel need to protect American lives and America’s interests anywhere in the world.
This assessment focuses on the most direct, serious threats to the United States during the next year.
The order of the topics presented in this assessment does not necessarily indicate their relative importance or the magnitude of the threats in the view of the IC. All require a robust intelligence response, including those where a near-term focus may help head off greater threats in the future.
Information available as of 18 January was used in the preparation of this assessment.
Relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan are likely to remain tense and occasionally volatile in the absence of a peace treaty, given the proximity of military forces at the interstate border, the lack of a cease-fire enforcement mechanism, and Azerbaijan’s readiness to use calibrated military pressure to advance its goals in talks with Armenia. The continued presence of military forces in close proximity along the delimited border elevates the risk of armed confrontation between Armenia and Azerbaijan, although such confrontations are likely to be limited in duration and intensity.
Since May 2021, military clashes have occurred regularly at the interstate border and around the Nagorno-Karabakh region. The most intense flare-up took place in September 2022, when Azerbaijani forces launched a coordinated attack at multiple locations along the border, seizing some Armenian territory and resulting in nearly 300 military deaths.
Peace talks have made some progress, but the most challenging issues—related to state borders and the future of Nagorno-Karabakh—are far from being resolved.