As part of the special RSC professional training program that catered to alumni of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) “Leadership Academy” program, a mentorship and publications component offered participants an opportunity to develop their research and analytical skills, with the publication of selected articles.
In coordination with the Regional Programme Political Dialogue South Caucasus for the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS), the RSC was pleased to assist with the analytical preparation and writing process, culminating in three publications, including the following:
FROM REVOLUTION TO CONFLICT: HOW FOREIGN POLICY REALIGNMENTS TRIGGER SECURITY CRISES IN THE POST-SOVIET REGION
Gayane Ghukasyan
Abstract
This paper aims to highlight whether security issues followed by color revolutions in post-Soviet region are caused by regime changes. A case study analysis is conducted, using 3 cases: Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan. Georgia’s “Rose revolution” was followed by the Russian-Georgian war and the annexation of Crimea came after the “Orange revolution.” However, Kyrgyzstan did not experience any security threat after the regime change. The research argues that the regime changes in the mentioned countries became the reason for security challenges; and explains why Kyrgyzstan is an exception. Comparative method, content analysis and process tracing are applied, arguing that while the fact of revolution does not have a direct influence on the conflict development, the abrupt foreign policy reorientation serves as a primary reason.
The policy of strengthening ties with EU and the western countries, which replaced Russian dependency, was viewed by the latter as a threat to its national interests and ended up with the 2008 war in Georgia and the annexation of Crimea. At the same time the revolutionary government in Kyrgyzstan did not change the country’s foreign policy towards closer ties with the West, thus avoiding any aggressive reaction from Russia. The paper emphasizes the influence of strategic importance of the mentioned countries on the reaction of the hegemon to abrupt foreign policy changes, demonstrating that in the post-Soviet region, sudden foreign policy pivots can cause serious security problems.
The full article is attached.
The RSC implemented this 2024 training project, which catered to alumni of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) “Leadership Academy” program and was organized in partnership with the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) Regional Programme Political Dialogue South Caucasus and the Eduardo Frei Foundation. This certificate-based training project was launched in August 2024 and participants received extensive capacity building and professional development opportunities through methodological workshops, a mentoring program and a publication campaign.