RSC Director Richard Giragosian participated in a discussion of the recent escalation of clashes over Nagorno Karabakh and along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border in a roundtable organized by the Yerevan-based Media Center on January 26. Giragosian joined Armenian parliamentarian Tevan Poghosyan, Stepan Girgoryan, the head of the Analytical Centre on Globalization and Regional Cooperation, and Shahin Rzayev, the Azerbaijan country director of the Baku office of the Institute for War and Peace Reporting (IWPR).
.The discussion, entitled “Recent Political Developments and Heightened Tension along the Armenian-Azerbaijani Border,” was hosted by the Media Center, in cooperation with the IWPR Armenia Branch.
In his comments, Giragosian stressed that “the recent escalation was unusual and different, for three reasons. First, it was unusual in terms of timing, whereas unlike the record of past escalation that is traditionally conducted in the summer months, this round of clashes erupted earlier in the year than usual. Second, the recent wave of clashes “reflects an expanded ‘battlespace’ of geography, with more attacks on the Armenian-Azerbaijan border, rather than limited to Nagorno Karabakh. And third, the escalation is also rooted in more intensity in term of intensity and combat operations, or ‘op tempo,’ he stressed.”
Thus, Giragosian added, the current situation is “also different in terms of how we measure insecurity,” explaining that “unfortunately, if formerly we measured ceasefire violations by the number of shots fired, we are now calculating the breach of the ceasefire in the number of casualties.”
Although reiterating that “the threat of any official declaration of war is unlikely,” he noted that “the real risk is one of a ‘war by accident’ based on miscalculation, where skirmishes can spiral quickly out of control.”
Turning to the broader context, Giragosian added that “taking into account Russia’s policy of aggression and war in Ukraine, there is a threat that Moscow’s traditional stance on Nagorno Karabakh may change,” going on to say that the “Gyumri tragedy gave rise to new issues on asymmetry of Armenia-Russia relations.”
Media coverage:
www.mediamax.am/en/news/karabakh/12966/
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