In an article entitled “South Caucasus will struggle to win Iran's attention,” Carmen Valache of Business New Europe (BNE) cites RSC Director Richard Giragosian in her assessment of the future of Iran’s relations with the countries of the South Caucasus now that sanctions against Iran are being lifted.
Excerpts:
“The EU's lifting of sanctions on Iran this month has been hailed as a "golden page" in the country's history in Teheran, and as a victory of pragmatism over isolationism and conservatism. But while Iran has expressed its intention to prioritise relations with its close vicinity, its small Caucasian neighbours to the north – Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan - might fail to take full advantage of Teheran's opening up.”
“……On the surface, both countries could benefit from the opening up of Iran. Baku and Yerevan have congratulated Teheran over the lifting of sanctions, while local newspapers have been running daily headlines about trade negotiations, the launch of ferry transport (in the case of Azerbaijan), easing of visa requirements, and cooperation in various sectors, such as e-commerce, IT, pharmaceuticals, construction, and oil and gas exploration.
However, Azerbaijan needs to change its mindset if it is to make the most of this opportunity, according to Richard Giragosian, director at the Yerevan-based Regional Studies Centre (RSC).
"The way I see it," Giragosian tells bne IntelliNews "is that, although Armenia is the natural beneficiary to the end of sanctions, Azerbaijan will accomplish more because it has a bigger economy. The challenge for Armenia will be Russia, because Armenia can only go as far in its relations with Iran as Russia allows. Azerbaijan theoretically has more freedom, but it needs to overcome its short-sighted, zero-sum approach to relations with Iran."
Baku's courting of Teheran has been reactive, rather than proactive, so far, and designed to trump Armenia's bids to Teheran, Giragosian believes, for ultimately Azerbaijan wants Iran to drop its partnership with Armenia. Case in point, after Armenia proposed a (poorly thought-out, expensive and challenging to construct) railway connection to Iran, Azerbaijan did the same and won because its link was shorter, cheaper and easier to build.
After Armenia suggested that Iran could export more gas to Georgia using an existing pipeline that runs through its territory, Baku proposed that it join the Trans Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) and export to Turkey – a proposal that is impossible to implement in the next decade because of the pipeline's limited capacity, as it would mean that Azerbaijan would have to reduce its own gas exports to accommodate Iran's.”
“……Energy and transport are also the most attractive areas that Armenia is eyeing in its relations with Iran as a way out of its isolation. But Giragosian believes that those sectors are "a red line for Moscow”. He speculates “that “Moscow might, however, use Armenia by bolstering its position in the [Russia-led trade organisation] Eurasian Economic Union, for instance, and have it serve as an intermediary in its relations with Teheran".
In any case, for all of Baku and Yerevan's efforts, Teheran is more likely to preoccupy itself with bigger markets such as India, Pakistan and Europe, rather than Armenia and Azerbaijan in the foreseeable future.”
http://www.intellinews.com/south-caucasus-will-struggle-to-win-iran-s-attention-89176/