In an interview with NOS Nieuws of the Netherlands, RSC Director Richard Giragosian provided analytical comments to Iris de Graaf and Chiem Balduk for their article “Armenië tart Rusland met legeroefening met VS, spanningen met Bakoe lopen op” (“Armenia defies Russia with army exercise with US, tensions with Baku rise”).
(Excerpts from the original Dutch)
Russia is falling short
Armenia feels cheated by Russia, says Richard Giragosian, director of the think tank Regional Studies Center in Yerevan. "After the failed invasion of Ukraine, it is clear to Armenia that the great Russian 'power' is a myth." As an ally, Russia is failing to protect the Armenian population: Russian peacekeepers have been thinned out since the war in Ukraine and the focus in Moscow is not on the fragile situation in the Caucasus. And so Armenia is looking for new allies.
The military exercise with the US is an important development in the geopolitical balancing act that Armenia is now carrying out. "It involves few troops and equipment, which makes it a relatively small exercise. But it is a clear step away from Moscow," says Giragosian.
EU jumps into Russia's gap
Yet Giragosian does not think that the relationship with Moscow will be completely trashed. According to him, Armenia is operating in the survival mode of a small country: "Yerevan wants to broaden the number of allies, from China and India to also the EU and the US. To complement Russia, not as a replacement."
Russia emphasizes that it continues to have confidence in the alliance with Armenia, but in Moscow they view Yerevan's renewed Western friendships with suspicion, especially the military exercise with arch-enemy America.
Giragosian thinks that less dependence on Russia could help Armenia in the conflict with Azerbaijan. "As a mediator, Russia always has its own interests at the table: Moscow wants to retain power in the Caucasus no matter what." Now the European Union is filling the gap left by Russia, a party that, according to Giragosian, can mediate independently and therefore facilitate promising negotiations.
The fact remains that Armenia is in a weak position militarily without Russian support, while the larger Azerbaijani army can count on unconditional Turkish support. Now that Russia has its hands full with Ukraine, Azerbaijan could take the opportunity to start a new war and completely annex the enclave. A temporary American military presence cannot prevent this, but perhaps diplomatic channels can. The only question is who will ultimately take on that role of mediator.
NOS Nieuws
Armenië tart Rusland met legeroefening met VS, spanningen met Bakoe lopen op