The attached is the PowerPoint presentation from a recent RSC Special Closed Briefing on the current military situation in the region, held on 13 June 2012.
As background, this special briefing centered on the regional security situation in the South Caucasus, with an updated assessment of recent attacks and clashes along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border and the “line of contact” between Nagorno Karabakh and Azerbaijan.
1. Assessing Recent Developments
2. The Proper Perspective
3. The Broader Significance
4. Deeper Trends & Implications
5. Conclusion & Recommendations
Against a backdrop of an already fragile balance of power and an escalating “arms race,” an outbreak of recent military attacks byAzerbaijan against Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh threatens to trigger a new outbreak of hostilities or outright war. Azerbaijan’s latest military attacks were significant, in terms of both timing and tenacity.
But it is the larger context that is the more worrying, as Azerbaijan is following a new military strategy based on a buildup of procurement and preparations for "attaining operational readiness" by 2014; i.e. threatening war by the 20th anniversary of the ceasefire if there is no progress in the Nagorno Karabakh peace process.
In accordance with our regular series of RSC monthly briefings, the presentation was followed by an informal, closed "off-the-record" discussion (with no press in attendance), with the diplomatic community and international organizations as the target audience.
As an independent "think tank," the Regional Studies Center (RSC) offers this series of briefings in order to serve as more of a resource for the diplomatic community and relevant international organizations. More specifically, our aim is to consistently provide an alternative source of analysis and information.