As part of its series of early warning alerts, the RSC released a brief “situational assessment” on March 13, 2014 offering concise analysis of reports of unusual troop movements in Azerbaijan, triggering concern in Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh over a possible attack by Azerbaijani forces. The RSC Situational Assessment noted that “while some sources in Azerbaijan have confirmed these developments as part of a long-planned military exercise, other sources argue that the new, more assertive force posture may be in preparation for a new Azerbaijani incursion or reconnaissance probe of Armenian & Karabakh defensive positions.”

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The RSC went on to warn that “despite the lack of more specific verifiable information on the exact nature and scale of Azerbaijani deployments, the current situation may be the preparatory stage for a possible new round of ceasefire violations and may trigger a sharp increase in tension along the “line of contact” between Nagorno Karabakh and along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border.” It also stressed that “nevertheless, there is a rather high likelihood of an attack or incursion within the coming three weeks.”

See below for the full Situational Assessment:

{edocs}publications/analytical_reports/2014/march/13/Nagorno_Karabakh_Situational_Assessment_13_March_2014.pdf,,950{/edocs}