RSC Analysis

RSC “NAGORNO-KARABAKH SITUATIONAL ASSESSMENT”

The attached is our latest “RSC Nagorno-Karabakh Situational Assessment,” covering the most recent escalation, from 4-11 December, in which at least half of dozen deaths were reported from all sides, a military UAV was shot down and a tank unit was used for the first time since the signing of the 1994 ceasefire. 

US INTELLIGENCE REPORTS TO CONGRESS ON WORLD WIDE THREAT ASSESSMENT

As part of an annual series of US Congressional hearings, two senior intelligence community officials testified at an open hearing before the US Senate Armed Services Committee on 26 February, reporting on the “Worldwide Threat Assessment.” The attached are the official declassified reports from James R. Clapper, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), and Lt. Gen. Vincent Stewart, the Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA).

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RSC RELEASES BRIEF ANALYTICAL NOTE ON NEW SURPRISE IN ARMENIAN POLITICS

In a brief analytical note released on January 27, the RSC looks at an interesting development, with implications for Armenian politics. The one-page brief, entitled “A Fresh Surprise and New Suspense in Armenian Domestic Politics,” looks at the possible emergence of Armenian Defense Minister Seyran Ohanyan as a possible contender for the Armenian presidency.

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RSC ANALYSIS: NAGORNO-KARABAKH SITUATIONAL ASSESSMENT

In response to the 12 November downing of a Nagorno-Karabakh army helicopter by an Azerbaijani frontline unit, the RSC released its latest “Nagorno-Karabakh Situational Assessment” on 17 November. The three page assessment warned that the shoot down of the Mi-24 combat helicopter marked a fresh escalation of tension, only enhanced by an earlier surge in fighting in August that was the most serious since the May 1994 ceasefire. The RSC report further noted that the repercussions from this one incident are even more significant, however, with broader implications, ranging from the military situation to the peace process itself.

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ECFR

In a new publication released on 29 July by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), RSC Director Richard Giragosian assessed recent developments in Armenia-EU relations. The ECFR publication, entitled “Protecting the European Choice,” was edited by Andrew Wilson and included s series of case studies on Ukraine, Armenia, Georgia and Moldova. Each analysis offered a unique assessment of “Russian pressure,” which the authors found to be “often self-defeating,” and articulated specific policy recommendations for the EU in crafting a new strategy towards Russia and the periphery.

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